Knitting the future of the textiles and leather sector: Four scenarios
In a rapidly changing world - where demand and supply opportunities change equally fast - it is not enough to simply project the present into the future. Alternative visions of the future are needed in order to broaden understanding of issues that should be addressed today. Building scenarios that describe the world six years from now is necessary in order to adapt current practice and arrive at a more robust, future-oriented practice should a particular future occur.
Scenario-building process
The objective of this report is to present a scenario analysis that may be used as a vehicle to develop long-term visions (seven to 10-year) of possible circumstances and requirements for optimising the European textiles industry and the sustainable development of its workforce. This objective is pursued as a task split into the following two goals:
- To develop exploratory scenarios for the macro drivers influencing the textiles industry. These reflect the trends that few companies and political actors can influence on their own, and which encompass five categories of drivers and trends:
- socio-cultural;
- economic;
- political;
- technical;
- ecological.
- To present plausible implications of the changes at company level. These are the initiatives and strategies that companies are likely to follow concerning:
- issues and challenges related to skills and education;
- organisation of work;
- business strategies involving issues such as brand management and sourcing;
- innovation strategies.
The four scenarios
The four scenarios show variations across five predefined key dimensions:
- Tech 1 = Development of information, communication and production technology.
- Tech 2 = Development of textile-related technologies such as chemistry and nanotechnology.
- EU = Development of the European Union.
- Int. Trade = Development of international trade.
- Market = Economic situation within the EU.
No scenario is perfectly correlated - either in a positive or negative direction - with any other scenario. Each paints a very different picture of the Europe of 2010, each highlights unique aspects, and each is possible.
Scenario 1: Perfectly prêt à porter
This is in many ways a utopian scenario. The year 2010 has been preceded by a period of economic, social and technological progress, and the world is at peace. The enlargement process of the EU has been a remarkable success and the EU is emerging as a very strong player on the world scene. International trade is free but fair, and the companies are looking for business opportunities all over the world.
Scenario 2: Rags and riches
This is a scenario where EU companies are maintaining their competitive advantages, but developments in international trade, ICT, and production technology prevent them from exploiting these advantages outside Europe. EU policy and initiatives have played an important role in the development of the companies’ competitive base, and challenges related to labour market issues are solved by upskilling and re-skilling the workforce.
Scenario 3: The emperor’s new clothes
In this scenario, the promises of new technologies have not borne fruit, and the EU has failed in many ways. Most of EU textiles production has therefore been outsourced or closed down. International trade is very open, and consequently many EU companies find themselves in a cost game where they are having a hard time matching the price/value offers of companies based in emerging-market countries.
Scenario 4: Driving Miss Daisy
This is a scenario where product and process technologies are developing rapidly, but the ‘engines’ driving the development are located outside the EU. The EU has not been able to exploit the opportunities presented by enlargement and is generally having difficulty supporting its citizens and businesses. Although international trade has developed rapidly, European companies are focusing on the European market, even though competition on this market is becoming stronger with the entry of emerging companies from Asia.
Access information:
The full scenario report is available for downloading free of charge as a pdf file (
255 kb) by clicking on the link below.
Assessment
This report analyses the major socio-cultural, economic, political, technical and ecological trends and their associated drivers of change over the next 10 years in the textiles industry. It presents posssible future scenarios with regard to the development of: ICT and production technologies; textile-related technologies; the EU; international trade; and the economic situation within the EU.