Wages in Norway rose on average by 4½% in 2003, according to figures issued in February 2004 by the Technical Calculating Committee on Incomes Settlements. This compares with wage growth of 5.7% in 2002. The average growth in real wages was 2% from 2002 to 2003.
The average wage growth among Norwegian wage earners in 2003 was 4½%, according to preliminary figures from the Technical Calculating Committee on Wage Settlements (Det tekniske beregningsutvalget for inntektsoppgjørene, TBU). This was significantly lower than in 2002. Real wage growth was around 2% from 2002 to 2003. The annual report of TBU was made public on 20 February 2004. This report, which is presented prior to each wage settlement, acts as an important statistical basis for annual wage negotiations, and TBU has representation from Statistics Norway (Statistisk Sentralbyrå, SSB) and two government ministries, as well as all the major social partners (NO9908145F).
The TBU report finds that wage growth has fallen in all sectors since 2002. The 4½% wage growth witnessed in 2003 was significantly lower than the 5.7% growth witnessed in 2002 (NO0302104F). Blue-collar workers in manufacturing industry saw the lowest growth in 2003, at 3½%, while the highest wage growth was among employees in the education system (5.4%) and in the various national health enterprises (5%) (NO0108139F). The relatively high growth rate witnessed in the education system owes much to particular efforts made to improve the situation of teachers in recent years, which are still bearing fruit (NO0006194F).
Estimated wage growth from 2001 to 2002 and 2002 to 2003, selected groups (%)
| . | 2002 | 2003 |
| All sectors | 5.7 | 4½ |
| Blue- and white-collar workers in manufacturing industry (NHO) | 5.6 | 4.0 |
| - blue-collar employees (NHO) | 5.0 | 3½ |
| - white-collar employees (NHO) | 6.1 | 4½ |
| Employees in retail and wholesale trade | 5.0 | 4.3 |
| Employees in commercial and savings banks | 6.2 | 4½ |
| Central government employees | 5.9 | 4.3 |
| Municipal and county employees | 6.0 | 4½ |
| Education (teachers) | 8.2 | 5.4 |
| - NAVO (semi-public) | 5.5 | 3¾ |
| - hospitals newly transferred to NAVO area | 5.3 | 5.0 |
Source: TBU.
Overall, the purchasing power of Norwegian wage earners grew more slowly in 2003 than in the previous year. The retail prices index (RPI) rose by 2½% from 2002 to 2003, largely due to an unprecedented increase in electricity prices in the same period. Price growth, together with a more modest increase in pay (as well as a few changes to the tax system) produced a growth in real wages of around 2% from 2002 to 2003, which may be contrasted with the 4.5% growth witnessed in 2002. TBU estimates that the RPI will rise by approximately 1% from 2003 to 2004.
In the light of increasing wage growth in recent years, seen as undermining the competitiveness of the exposed manufacturing industry in Norway, the overall goal of cooperation between the social partners has been to reduce the wage growth rate to the level of Norway's main trading partners (NO0302105F). To this end, TBU also provide analyses of the competitive standing of manufacturing industry. In the period from 1996 to 2002, it states, Norwegian industry was weakened by high wage growth and the strengthening of the national currency, the krona. In 2003, however, a drop in the wage growth rate and a weakening of the Norwegian krona strengthened manufacturing industry's competitiveness. However the wages of workers in Norwegian manufacturing industry are still 33% higher than among Norway’s main trading partners (when measured in the same currency). In 2002, the difference was 36%. Looking at all employees (including white-collar workers) the difference in wages between Norway and its main trading partners in 2003 was 18%, which was a drop of 5 percentage points from 2002.
Looking ahead, TBU also provide estimates concerning the 'wage carry-over' effect, ie the effect of the wage increases awarded in 2003 on wage growth in 2004. This will be an important factor in the up-coming 2004 wage settlements, as little in the way of central increases were awarded in 2003 (NO0304101N). The carry-over effect from 2003 is thus expected to be modest in 2004, varying from 2½% among white-collar workers in manufacturing industry to 0.2% for teachers.