Promoting social cohesion and convergence
Konvergencija u EU-u: zemljopisna dimenzija, utjecaj bolesti COVID-19 i uloga politike
Published:
22 March 2023
Research report
Abstract
U prošlosti su političke rasprave o konvergenciji u EU-u jačale nakon krize. S obzirom na pandemiju bolesti COVID-19, svrha je ovog izvješća iznijeti pregled kretanja konvergencije u protekla dva desetljeća. Istraživanje započinje empirijskim istraživanjem gospodarske, socijalne i institucionalne konvergencije 2004. – 2019. na razini država članica i na regionalnoj razini. Analiza se zatim proširuje na 2020. i 2021. kako bi se ispitao učinak pandemije. Istraživanjem se potvrđuje ukupna uzlazna konvergencija koju pokreću države članice središnje i istočne Europe, za koju se čini da je usporila zbog pandemije, ali nije stala. Nakon analize trendova slijedi procjena mogućeg učinka mehanizma za oporavak i otpornost na konvergenciju i rasprava o različitim scenarijima politika za podršku uzlaznoj konvergenciji na temelju postojećih iskustava s mehanizmom za oporavak i otpornost i rasprave koja se vodi o budućnosti kohezijske politike EU-a.
Key findings
Unatoč tome što je EU ponovno dobio pozitivan zamah nakon gospodarske krize u razdoblju 2008. – 2013., konvergencija u EU-u nije se ubrzala do 2020., iako su se gospodarske, socijalne i institucionalne razlike među državama članicama EU-a stalno smanjivale sve do izbijanja pandemije bolesti COVID-19.
Na regionalnoj razini između 2004. i 2019. došlo je do uzlazne konvergencije u EU-u, iako je ona bila sporija nego na razini pojedinih zemalja. Taj trend uglavnom su potaknule države članice iz srednje i istočne Europe koje su se suočile s brzim rastom njihovih regija glavnoga grada. Međutim, regije južne Europe pretrpjele su gospodarsku stagnaciju i općenitije pogoršanje socijalnih i institucionalnih uvjeta, čime se naglašava potreba za zadržavanjem uzlazne konvergencije u središtu političkog djelovanja EU-a.
Kriza uzrokovana bolešću COVID-19 znatno je utjecala na konvergenciju u EU-u te je, iako nije preokrenula trend snažne uzlazne konvergencije, ubrzala obrasce divergencije koji su se pojavili, kao što su rastuće razlike u BDP-u po stanovniku. To ukazuje da će za EU biti ključno imati alate politike koji se prilagođavaju velikim gospodarskim šokovima i dubokim društvenim promjenama povezanima sa zelenom i digitalnom tranzicijom EU-a.
Mehanizam za oporavak i otpornost novost je EU-a kao odgovor na poticanje transformacije gospodarstava država članica nakon pandemije bolesti COVID-19. Analiza planova mehanizma za oporavak i otpornost četiriju zemalja pokazuje da taj ključni instrument doprinosi reformama i ulaganjima koji bi inače ostali neostvareni, a iako konvergencija sama po sebi nije cilj mehanizma za oporavak i otpornost, ona je potencijalni nusproizvod planova država članica za oporavak.
Provedba mehanizma za oporavak i otpornost postaje važna osnova za razmišljanje unaprijed o alternativnim načinima podrške uzlaznoj konvergenciji. U novim se rezultatima istražuju različite mogućnosti za postizanje tog cilja, kao što su daljnje jačanje tradicionalnih kohezijskih politika, izgradnja centraliziranog modela reformi i ulaganja ili razvoj integriranog pristupa koji kombinira snažnije kohezijske politike s centraliziranim modelom reforme i ulaganja. To će biti ključni elementi koje oblikovatelji politika EU-a trebaju razmotriti kao dio rasprave o podršci gospodarskoj i socijalnoj konvergenciji.
The report contains the following lists of tables and figures.
List of tables
Table 1: Economic, social and institutional indicators used in the convergence analysis
Table 2: Unconditional beta-convergence in the EU, by indicator and time period, 2004–2019
Table 3: Conditional convergence in income inequality, 2004–2008, 2008–2013 and 2013–2019
Table 4: APE on probability of convergence in income inequality
Table 5: Conditional convergence in the AROPE rate, 2005–2008, 2008–2013 and 2013–2019
Table 6: APE on the probability of convergence in the AROPE rate
Table 7: WGI pairwise correlations
Table 8: Unconditional beta-convergence in the NUTS 2 regions, by indicator and period, 2004–2019
Table A1: Income inequality convergence (2004–2008, 2008–2013, 2013–2019)
Table A2: AROPE conditional convergence (2005–2008, 2008–2013, 2013–2019)
Table A3: Performance of four countries in relation to the European Pillar of Social Rights Social Scoreboard 2020
List of figures
Figure 1: Beta-convergence – GDP per capita (PPS), EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 2: Sigma-convergence – GDP per capita (PPS), in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 3: Beta-convergence – adjusted household disposable income per capita (PPS), EU27, 2009–2019
Figure 4: Sigma-convergence – adjusted household disposable income per capita (PPS), in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2009–2019
Figure 5: Beta-convergence – income quintile share ratio, EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 6: Sigma-convergence – income quintile share ratio, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 7: Predicted probabilities of convergence in income inequality, by value added in the agricultural sector, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster
Figure 8: Beta-convergence – compensation of employees per hour worked, EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 9: Sigma-convergence – compensation of employees per hour worked, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 10: Beta-convergence – employment rate, EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 11: Sigma-convergence – employment rate, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 12: Beta-convergence – unemployment rate, EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 13: Sigma-convergence – unemployment rate, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 14: Beta-convergence – NEET rate, EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 15: Sigma-convergence – NEET rate, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 16: Beta-convergence – early school-leavers rate, EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 17: Sigma-convergence – early school-leavers rate, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 18: Beta-convergence – AROPE rate, EU27, 2005–2019
Figure 19: Sigma-convergence – AROPE rate, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2005–2019
Figure 20: Predicted probabilities of convergence in the AROPE rate by income inequality levels, in EU27 and by geographical cluster
Figure 21: Beta-convergence – government effectiveness, EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 22: Sigma-convergence – government effectiveness, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 23: Sigma-convergence in quality of governance indicators, 2004–2019
Figure 24: Beta-convergence – GDP per capita, NUTS 2 regions, 2004–2019
Figure 25: GDP per capita in NUTS 2 regions – transition maps and matrix and distribution of classes, 2004–2008
Figure 26: GDP per capita in NUTS 2 regions – transition map and matrix and distribution of classes, 2008–2013
Figure 27: GDP per capita in NUTS 2 regions – transition map and matrix and distribution of classes, 2013–2019
Figure 28: GDP per capita growth (%) in CEE countries, by region, 2004–2019
Figure 29: Beta-convergence – employment rate, NUTS 2 regions, 2004–2019
Figure 30: Employment rate in NUTS 2 regions – transition map and matrix and distribution of classes, 2004–2008
Figure 31: Employment rate in NUTS 2 regions – transition map and matrix and distribution of classes, 2008–2013
Figure 32: Employment rate in NUTS 2 regions – transition map and matrix and distribution of classes, 2013–2019
Figure 33: Beta-convergence – EQI, NUTS 2 regions, 2010–2019
Figure 34: EQI in NUTS 2 regions – transition map and matrix and distribution of classes, 2010–2013
Figure 35: EQI in NUTS 2 regions – transition map and matrix and distribution of classes, 2013–2019
Figure 36: Beta-convergence – GDP per capita, EU27, 2013–2019 and 2013–2021
Figure 37: Sigma-convergence – GDP per capita (€), EU27, 2004–2021
Figure 38: Beta-convergence – employment rate, EU27, 2013–2019 and 2013–2021
Figure 39: Sigma-convergence – employment rate (%), EU27, 2004–2021
Figure 40: Beta-convergence – government effectiveness, EU27, 2013–2019 and 2013–2020
Figure 41: Sigma-convergence – government effectiveness, EU27, 2004–2020
Figure 42: Total number of social reforms in Croatia, Germany, Italy and Spain, by policy area
Figure 43: Breakdown of investment by policy areas in Croatia, Germany, Italy and Spain (% of total RRF funds)
- Number of pages
-
104
- Reference nº
-
EF22016
- ISBN
-
978-92-897-2312-1
- Catalogue nº
-
TJ-07-23-025-EN-N
- DOI
-
10.2806/706661
- Permalink
Cite this publication
Eurofound (2023), EU convergence: Geographical dimension, impact of COVID-19 and the role of policy, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.
Related publications
Publication series
