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Przewidywanie skutków zmian i zarządzanie nimi

Przewidywanie skutków zmian i zarządzanie nimi jest jednym z sześciu głównych działań w ramach programu prac Eurofoundu na lata 2021–2024. Eurofound przedstawi dowody potwierdzające zmiany strukturalne wpływające na gospodarkę UE i unijne rynki pracy, wynikające w głównej mierze z cyfryzacji oraz przechodzenia na gospodarkę bezemisyjną , lecz także z kryzysu związanego z COVID-19. Celem badań jest wsparcie decydentów w przewidywaniu tych zmian oraz w przygotowywaniu europejskich rynków pracy oraz miejsc pracy na te zmiany.

Począwszy od 2021 r. Eurofound będzie dostarczać informacje na temat wpływu tych megatrendów na warunki życia i pracy w UE. W obszarze cyfryzacji badania będą koncentrować się na odnośnym wpływie na warunki zatrudnienia i pracy, a także na rynek pracy. Badane dziedziny będą obejmować dialog społeczny oraz jego rolę w kształtowaniu zmiany strukturalnej, ramy regulacyjne, ochronę socjalną i sztuczną inteligencję (SI). Bazując na wcześniejszych badaniach poświęconych pracy na platformie, okres 2021–2024 będzie okazją, aby skupić się na opracowaniu i przeprowadzeniu oceny skuteczności inicjatyw strategicznych w zakresie radzenia sobie z wyzwaniami zidentyfikowanymi w odniesieniu do pracy na platformie.

Eurofound będzie również dążyć do wsparcia przejścia UE na gospodarkę bezemisyjną, z uwzględnieniem gospodarki o obiegu zamkniętym i wdrożenia narzędzia służącego odbudowie gospodarki UE NextGenerationEU, poprzez badanie skutków społeczno-gospodarczych. Skutki te obejmują zmiany w zatrudnieniu oraz transformację miejsc i warunków pracy, jak również skutki dystrybucyjne polityk klimatycznych. Podstawą części tych badań będą wyniki projektu pilotażowego dotyczącego przyszłości produkcji (FOME) realizowanego przez Eurofound.

Aby kontynuować te prace w latach 2021–2024, Eurofound będzie współpracować z różnymi organizacjami międzynarodowymi i agencjami UE, na przykład z Europejską Agencją Środowiska (EEA) w odniesieniu do skutków społecznych polityk klimatycznych. Ponadto obecna współpraca z innymi podmiotami badawczymi w obszarach cyfryzacji – takimi jak Wspólne Centrum Badawcze (JRC), Agencja Praw Podstawowych Unii Europejskiej (FRA) oraz Europejska Agencja Bezpieczeństwa i Zdrowia w Pracy (EU-OSHA) – zostanie skonsolidowana. Przewiduje się również kontynuowanie partnerstwa z Międzynarodową Organizacją Pracy (ILO) w obszarze zmieniającego się świata pracy.

„Gospodarka UE i unijne rynki pracy charakteryzują się wpływem megatrendów, zwłaszcza cyfryzacji oraz przejścia na gospodarkę bezemisyjną. Należy dokładnie zbadać, w jaki sposób te zmiany zachodzą, co się zmienia i jak będzie to wpływać nie tylko na przedsiębiorstwa, lecz także na siłę roboczą i społeczeństwo.”

Irene Mandl, kierowniczka Działu Zatrudnienia

Topic

Recent updates

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Regulatory responses to algorithmic management in the EU

Since 2013, Eurofound's ERM database on restructuring-related legislation has been documenting regulatory developments in the Member States of the European Union and Norway. The most recent update to the database...

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Not only do we need appropriate policy measures to drive the shift to a carbon-neutral economy, we also need sound policy to ensure no one is left behind – we...

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Kluczowe przesłanie programowe

Infografika

Główne ustalenia płynące z badań Eurofoundu służą za wkład, który pomoże decydentom w rozwiązaniu części kluczowych problemów w tym obszarze.

  • Wsparcie pracodawców i pracowników w przejściu zarówno do ery cyfrowej, jak i na gospodarkę bezemisyjną ma kluczowe znaczenie. Pomijając zmiany strukturalne, panująca pandemia COVID-19 stanowi ogromne wyzwanie dla gospodarki europejskiej i dla europejskiego rynku pracy.
  • Nowe formy zatrudnienia, takie jak praca na platformie i praca zdalna w oparciu o ICT, zyskują coraz większą popularność na europejskich rynkach pracy. Te formy zatrudnienia, które opierają się na wykorzystywaniu ICT, charakteryzują się nowymi rodzajami relacji pracowniczych między pracodawcą i pracownikiem, zmieniającą się organizacją pracy oraz zmieniającymi się modelami pracy. Przyniosą one zarówno możliwości, jak i zagrożenia dla unijnych rynków pracy, które stoją w obliczu przejścia na gospodarkę bezemisyjną oraz transformacji cyfrowej w dobie pandemii COVID-19.
  • Technologie cyfrowe zmieniają nie tylko organizację pracy, lecz także miejsce pracy, wywołując zmiany wpływające na rynek pracy, takie jak restrukturyzacja i utrata miejsc pracy. Zaczynają pojawiać się również nowe profile zawodowe. Profile zadań pracowniczych dostosowują się ze względu na cyfryzację produkcji i świadczenia usług. W rezultacie pojawia się zapotrzebowanie na inne umiejętności.
  • Istotne będzie zbadanie wspólnych skutków cyfryzacji i przejścia na gospodarkę bezemisyjną w obliczu pandemii COVID-19 oraz tego, w jaki sposób wzmacniają one siebie nawzajem albo jak korzyści płynące z jednego trendu mogą rekompensować negatywne skutki drugiego trendu.
  • Oparty na technologii potencjał w zakresie wytwarzania, gromadzenia i wykorzystywania dużych ilości danych może zwiększyć konkurencyjność europejskiego biznesu i poprawić jakość pracy. Niemniej jednak zapewnienie wyjaśnienia, odpowiedniego uregulowania i wdrożenia kwestii takich jak własność i ochrona danych będzie miało kluczowe znaczenie dla uniknięcia wyzysku i nieetycznego zachowania.

2021–2024 work plan

From 2021 onwards, Eurofound will provide insights into the impact of these megatrends on living and working conditions in the EU. In the area of digitalisation, research will focus on the impact on employment and working conditions, as well as on the labour market. Areas to be covered will include social dialogue and its role in shaping structural change, regulatory frameworks, social protection and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Building on previous research on platform work, the 2021–2024 period will be an opportunity to focus on mapping and providing an assessment of the effectiveness of policy initiatives in tackling the challenges identified with platform work.

Eurofound will also aim to support the EU’s transition to a carbon-neutral economy, including the circular economy and the implementation of the EU’s recovery instrument NextGenerationEU, by investigating the socioeconomic effects. These include employment shifts and the transformation of jobs and working conditions, as well as the distributional impact of climate change policies. Some of this work will build on the results of a pilot project on the future of manufacturing (FOME) carried out by Eurofound.

To continue this work in 2021–2024, Eurofound will cooperate with various international organisations and EU agencies, for example with the European Environment Agency (EEA) in the area of social impacts of climate change policies. Furthermore, existing collaboration with other research actors in the fields of digitalisation – the Joint Research Centre (JRC), Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA) and European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA) – will be consolidated. Further partnership with the International Labour Organization (ILO) is also foreseen on the subject of the changing world of work.

Addressing stakeholder priorities

Eurofound’s research aims to assist policy action to address the transitions to both a carbon-neutral economy and the digital age in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as helping to understand the impact of these changes at EU and national levels. For example, research on the impact of these drivers of change on the workplace level will provide insight into how to best support employers and workers so they can seize the opportunities and mitigate the challenges related to these developments. Eurofound’s research will also seek to support businesses in their efforts to adapt to a constantly evolving global economy. Furthermore, the examination of the distributional impacts of climate change policies and of measures to ensure social justice will provide knowledge to help implement the Just Transition Fund. The monitoring of reforms and recent financial support will also allow for an exchange of policy approaches and lessons learned.

The Agency’s work plan is aligned with the European Commission’s political guidelines for 2021–2024, feeding directly into a number of key policy areas aimed at creating a strong social Europe. In particular, the research will support the following Commission priorities:

 

Eurofound research

In 2024, Eurofound continues its research on the impact of digitalisation and the transition to a climate-neutral economy on working life. 

Various research strands linked with the digital and green transitions come to completion. This includes research into the impact of new developments in human–machine interaction on work organisation and working conditions. Research concludes on the impact of changes caused by the twin transitions at the sectoral level, focusing on the transformation of business activities, occupational and skill profiles, work organisation and working conditions. And analysis wraps up on the roles, opportunities and challenges of policy actors in the just transition, examining the design and implementation of Just Transition policies at the regional level, their mechanisms and the actors involved. 

Research continues on the impact of the green and digital transitions on the labour market and labour market actors with a project to explore company restructuring approaches and their ongoing adaptation strategies. Further research takes place on the socioeconomic impact of the transition to a carbon-neutral economy, monitoring the employment and social dimension of the green transition.

New research focuses on how managers’ roles and functions are impacted by the increase in telework and the shift towards more hybrid working in terms of challenges and opportunities.

The ongoing monitoring of the developments in the platform economy continues through Eurofound’s regularly updated web repository. Building on previous studies on platform work and the ongoing monitoring of policies and measures with regard to platform work through the web repository, new research focuses on the working conditions of online platform workers. This work aims to explore the characteristics of online platform workers and how they fare in relation to contractual arrangements and job quality, including pay, work intensity, working time, occupational health and safety, social environment and career prospects. It also explores the career goals of platform workers. 

Key outputs

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Eurofound's 2024 work programme is set in the context of the upcoming European elections, war in Ukraine, renewed Middle East conflict and rising cost of living across the EU.

23 Styczeń 2024
Publication
Work programme
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Rok 2022 przywitaliśmy z ostrożnym optymizmem. Europa wychodziła z dwuletniej pandemii COVID-19, a program NextGenerationEU nakreślił plan odbudowy dla stworzenia silnej i zrównoważonej przyszłości. Jednak rosyjski atak na Ukrainę na...

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Publication
Annual report

Eurofound expert(s)

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Tina Weber is a research manager in Eurofound’s Working Life unit. Having previously shared her time between the Employment and Working Life units, her work has focused on labour...

Research manager,
Working life research unit
Publications results (64)

What have been the major trends and policy developments regarding the flexibilisation of employment in recent years? Eurofound’s work programme for 2017–2020 set out to document and capture these changes in the world of work. This flagship publication provides an overview of developments in Europe

16 April 2020

To support the European Commission’s objective of ensuring Europe is fit for the digital age, this report examines the use of digital technologies in social services and the policies that promote digital transformation. The report explores some of the main issues involved in implementing

02 April 2020

Innovation and technological advancement are natural features of developed economies, and they are necessary to maintain and improve sustainable competitiveness in an era of globalisation. However, while most innovation tends to be incremental, some has a disruptive effect on production and service

22 January 2020

Advances in ICT have opened the door to new ways of organising work. We are shifting from a regular, bureaucratic and ‘factory-based’ working time pattern towards a more flexible model of work. Telework and ICT-based mobile work (TICTM) has emerged in this transition, giving workers and employers

16 January 2020

Accumulating evidence indicates that large metropolitan centres are faring much better than other regions within the Member States of the EU. Such interregional inequality contributes to disenchantment with existing political systems, which in turn can weaken the social bonds that ground democratic

07 October 2019

Platform work emerged onto European labour markets about a decade ago. While still small in scale, it is growing and evolving into a variety of forms. Different types of platform work have significantly different effects on the employment and working conditions of the affiliated workers.

23 September 2019

Eurofound’s European Restructuring Monitor (ERM) is a unique EU-wide dataset on larger-scale restructuring events, which monitors the announced employment effects of restructuring in the EU28 and Norway. Using reports from selected media titles, the ERM is updated on a daily basis. This report gives

16 May 2019

The pilot project The Future of Manufacturing in Europe is an explorative and future-oriented study. It explores the future adoption of some key game-changing technologies and how this adoption can be promoted, even regionally. The analysis of implications for working life focuses primarily on tasks

10 April 2019

This report looks into the impact of the accelerated application of automation and digitisation technologies on the wage and tasks structure of employment in Europe. Despite the high level of uncertainty of these projections, the contribution of this report is to extend the analysis beyond just the

10 April 2019

Reshoring – namely the relocation of value chain activities back to the home country or its nearby region – has attracted an increasing interest both among scholars and policymakers. The European Reshoring Monitor is a collaborative project between Eurofound and a consortium of Italian universities

01 April 2019

Online resources results (48)

Biomedical healthcare industry - visions of the future

/This second article in the Sector Futures series on the biomedical healthcare sector focuses on the main factors shaping the present and future of the industry. It assesses the major trends and drivers, and evaluates different scenarios for the biomedical healthcare industry. The article also

Biomedical healthcare industry - what future?

/The biomedical healthcare sector comprises biotechnologies dedicated to the treatment of human beings. The first of three articles in the Sector Futures series on biomedical healthcare looks at key features of the sector, including the size and structure of its market, the nature of employment, the

The chemicals sector - what future?

/Sector Futures provides specialised reports based on current foresight studies and reliable data sources. December 2005 features the second and third article in the series on the future of the chemicals sector, excluding pharmaceuticals. The articles explore the trends and drivers likely to shape

The hotels and catering sector - what future?

/Sector Futures provides specialised reports based on the monitoring of existing foresight studies, scenario work, innovation studies and reliable data sources. December 2005 features the complete Sector Futures article series on the hotels and catering sector. It sets out by defining the sector

The knowledge-intensive business services sector - what future?

/Sector Futures provides specialised reports based on the monitoring of existing foresight studies, scenario work, innovation studies and reliable data sources. The second article in the Sector Futures series on the knowledge-intensive business sector explores, in greater depth, the reasons for the

The transport sector - what future?

/Sector Futures provides specialised reports based on the monitoring of existing foresight studies, scenario work, innovation studies and reliable data sources. The third article in the series on the transport sector (May 2005) explores some of the issues that have arisen from policies of the

The food and drink sector - what future?

/Sector Futures provides specialised reports based on the monitoring of existing foresight studies, scenario work, innovation studies and reliable data sources. The third feature in this series on the food and drink sector (January 2005) discusses the future of Europe’s food and drink manufacturing

The health and social services sector - what future?

/Sector Futures provides specialised reports based on the monitoring of existing foresight studies, scenario work, innovation studies and reliable data sources. January 2005 features the third and last article in the series on the future of the health and social services sector. The paper examines


Blogs results (27)
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In the abstract, platform work is the matching of supply and demand for paid work through an online platform. In practice, most people are likely to have encountered it through big online platforms such as Uber, Deliveroo or Amazon Mechanical Turk. This is a new form employment that began to emerge

2 Listopad 2018
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Manual jobs in European manufacturing are being transformed as blue-collar workers take on more intellectual tasks. This is a consequence of the increasing use of digital tools and the growing importance of quality control in production. The severe losses of middle-paying jobs in the manufacturing s

27 Wrzesień 2018
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Digital technologies are transforming work, but the implications have not yet been fully grasped. In a recent Eurofound report, we focus on three main vectors of change to discuss the effects of digital technologies on work and employment and the policy responses such change demands.

6 Czerwiec 2018
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There are fears that thousands of jobs could be lost in financial services following the UK’s exit from the European Union. This blog piece explores some of the implications of Brexit for London’s financial hub, including the reactions of US banks.

12 luty 2018
New-generation cars boost manufacturing employment

Rising levels of employment in manufacturing in the EU since 2013 have seen the part reversal of a long-term decline in employment in this sector. Data from the European Restructuring Monitor (ERM) database to early September 2017 show that, for the first time since 2005, the number of new manufactu

25 Październik 2017
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In the digital age, there are fewer routine jobs because of a higher risk of automation. But a great paradox of this age is this: workers in most types of jobs, including high-skilled ones, are reporting higher levels of routine at work. This emerges from a new study of the task content of occupatio

28 Wrzesień 2016
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Since the advent of the Industrial Revolution, technological change has brought both opportunities and risks. However, the widespread entry of computing technology into the workplace in the 1980s, and in particular the arrival of the World Wide Web in the 1990s, has profoundly affected society and

25 Maj 2016

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