Wages and wage inequality are a topic of intense debate among academics and policymakers in Europe. Before the crisis, the discussion centred on wage growth below productivity levels and widening pay differentials across the workforce.
More recently, it has turned to big wage declines in some European countries severely hit by the crisis and the sluggish recovery of wages. But analysis of the most recent micro-data from the EU-SILC survey, for 2015, shows a reversal of negative trends in many EU Member States.
Average real wages increased in more than two-thirds of EU countries in 2015, but there are substantial differences across the region (see the first column in the table below). Wages grew in most eastern European countries and to a much greater extent than in most western European countries, where wage growth was rather subdued or even negative, especially in Mediterranean countries; exceptions were Denmark, Germany, Ireland and France. Similarly, wage inequality declined in around two-thirds of EU countries (see the last column in the table), although there is no significant association between the changes in average wage levels and in wage inequality levels.
Three main patterns emerge from the analysis:
Germany is similar to the second group of countries because real wages grew significantly (3.5%), although below the rates of eastern European countries. But growth over the wage distribution is completely different in this case: wages increased disproportionately among the lowest-paid employees (by almost 20% in wage quintile 1), which explains why Germany registered the largest reduction in wage inequality among all EU countries in 2015.
Change in average real wages by wage quintile and change in wage inequality, EU Member States, 2015
Note: Countries are ranked by the magnitude of the wage growth.
Source: EU-SILC
The marked increase of wage levels among the lowest-paid employees in Germany can only be explained by the introduction of a minimum wage in 2015. This was a major policy decision aimed at fighting the rising numbers of employees not covered by wage floors and the growth of low-paid work in the country. Our analysis of the data shows this policy decision introduced a significant break in the wage dynamics of the German labour market, where wage inequality had expanded in 2014.
Some groups within the workforce benefited more from this development than others. As the figure below illustrates, wage gains were significantly higher among the youngest and oldest age groups; employees with lower educational attainment; female employees; part-time employees; employees working in smaller companies; and employees in low-skilled occupational categories (blue collar especially but also white-collar to a lesser extent). In terms of economic sector, employees working in services benefited greatly. For instance, those working in arts, entertainment and recreation saw the highest wage boost, although employees in other service sectors – including information and communication, and real estate, professional and administrative activities – also saw substantial gains. Increases among employees in construction and retail, though lower, were still higher than average.
The main reason why the relative wage increase among these groups of employees was much higher is because they are more typically found at the bottom of the wage distribution, which is where the minimum wage policy had the biggest impact. This explains why when we look at the wage growth specifically among employees in the bottom quintile of the wage distribution – comparing the levels of the blue dots in the figure – the disparities dependent on employee characteristics (age, education, gender and so on), although still present, tend to become more modest. For example, the relative disparities between employees of different age groups in wage quintile 1 (blue dots) are less than the disparities between age groups in the total population of employees (green bars).
Relative change in average real wage levels (total and in wage quintile 1) by employee characteristics, Germany, 2015 (%)
Source: EU-SILC
Moreover, the beneficial effects of the minimum wage policy on real wage growth and the wage cohesion of the German workforce seem to have come at no significant price. Employment data show the employment prospects of those employees who have benefited more from the introduction of the minimum wage have not deteriorated, proving that fears about the potential disemployment effects of the policy were exaggerated.
For more detail on this analysis, see the working paper Wage developments in the EU and the impact of Germany’s minimum wage.
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