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The Russian invasion of Ukraine started in the first months of 2022 and is still ongoing. After three years of war, the situation is dire. Recent reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have lost between 50,000 and 60,000 soldiers, and there have been around 12,000 civilian casualties. 1Nearly seven million people from Ukraine have been displaced globally, with the largest shares given refuge in Poland and Moldova. 2The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) estimates that approximately 14.6 million people from Ukraine have needed humanitarian assistance. 

The EU has committed to standing by Ukraine to protect it, a democratic state, against an authoritarian regime. The EU and its Member States have adopted several measures to aid Ukraine and its people, such as sanctions against Russia, financial and military aid to Ukraine, and extending assistance and protection to displaced Ukrainians in the EU. While these efforts have been backed by most EU citizens, Eurofound’s latest e-survey has found a drop in support, especially among two groups – people who are economically insecure and people who use social media as their main news source.
 

Support for Ukraine still high, but declining

In 2022, a Flash Eurobarometer on the EU’s response to the war in Ukraine showed strong support among Europeans for Ukraine and its displaced people: 88% of respondents across the EU approved of welcoming in people fleeing the war, with a high degree of support coming from the Nordic countries. A year later, the Eurobarometer showed a decline in that support, although it remained high at 76% across the EU. In 2024, support for Ukrainian refugees dropped again, to 71%, with a particularly low share in Poland (60%), signalling a worrisome war fatigue in the country that has been on the frontline throughout. 3

Eurofound’s e-survey, Living and Working in the EU, complements the Eurobarometer and has mapped Europeans’ opinions on the war and on EU support for Ukraine since the Russian invasion in 2022. As Figure 1 shows, respondents to the e-survey reported a high level of concern about the war in 2022, which then dropped in 2023 and remained largely stable in 2024.
 

 

The decline in concern about the war was accompanied by increased dissatisfaction with government aid to Ukraine and its people. The starkest change in opinion relates to housing Ukrainians. Respondents increasingly say that their government has done too much in providing housing and assistance to Ukrainian refugees, with an increase of 7.9 percentage points over the two years in the proportion of people taking this stance. Regarding humanitarian aid, there was a small erosion of the middle ground, with opinion shifting towards too much or too little. Finally, respondents did not agree on the level of military aid, equally split between those who believed the government did too little, the right amount and too much. 
 

 

The picture becomes more revealing when respondents are categorised by their economic security, as measured by their ability to make ends meet. This shows that the largest change is among those who are financially insecure (who find it difficult to make ends meet). Among those respondents, the share who believe that the government has done too much to house and assist Ukrainian refugees increased by 14 percentage points between 2022 and 2024 (Figure 3). 
 

 

Similarly, among respondents who reported difficulty making ends meet, dissatisfaction with humanitarian aid rose by 8 percentage points and with military aid by 7.5 percentage points. Interestingly, however, support for these interventions eroded most among those who felt their government had provided the right amount of support (11.4 percentage points) and least among those who felt that the government had done too little (2.6 percentage points).
 

Changing attitudes: Insights from panellists

Eurofound’s e-survey panel gives more insights into how respondents changed their minds from the start of the war to its two-year anniversary. The panel is composed of European citizens who took part in 2022 and 2024 and for whom we can track changes in opinion. 4 In this group, support for housing Ukrainians changed most, with a substantial increase from 2022 to 2024 in the proportion saying their government gave too much support (+7.4 percentage points) (Figure 4).

Overall, opinion was most evenly divided in relation to military aid, with the three answer categories split more or less equally. The middle ground eroded over the two years, however, with an increase in both those who felt their government gave too little support and those who felt their government gave too much support.
 

 

Support falls most among social media users

The changed media landscape, where less authoritative and more biased news sources capture audiences through social media, has helped to fuel dissatisfaction and uncertainty regarding the war. 5 Discerning true from fake news can be difficult in this news environment. Couple this with the fact that social media is known to amplify misinformation by creating echo chambers and allowing for fringe views to thrive and spread, it suggests that social media may be playing a divisive role in support for Ukraine. Eurofound’s e-survey asks respondents about their preferred news source, whether traditional media, such as television and newspapers, or social media. In the context of persistent disquiet over the role social media platforms are playing in shaping attitudes, we analysed the relationship between respondents’ main news source and their attitude to their government’s support for Ukraine.

Among panellists who already consumed their news through social media, support for housing of Ukrainians, humanitarian aid and military aid is much lower than among those whose main news source is traditional media, or among those who changed their preferred news source to social media. In addition, looking at Figure 5, notice how those consuming news mainly on social media are polarised regarding military aid. This finding perhaps reflects the fragmented and polarised online environment that feeds into the panellists’ opinions regarding the war and their country’s support for it. 
 

 

Who is withdrawing support most?

Respondents whose economic circumstances were difficult or became difficult across the two years changed their minds regarding housing Ukrainians and sending military aid to a greater extent than those whose situation was or became easy (Figures 6(a) and 6(b)). Almost one in five (18.1%) of those whose economic situation was difficult across the two years withdrew their support for their government’s housing of Ukrainians, while 22% of those whose economic situation became difficult withdrew their support for government sending military aid.
 

 


 

The experience of deprivation – being unable to afford basic economic and social needs – is another strong determinant of support for displaced Ukrainians. Many of those who initially supported their government aiding Ukraine and Ukrainians (saying that their government gave too little or the right amount) and who then changed their mind (saying their government gave to much) also reported being unable to afford at least one basic need in 2024, be it replacing clothes or furniture, internet access, or meeting socially with friends and family. 
 

 

The panel structure allows the same respondents to be asked the same questions two years apart, and the difference between 2022 and 2024 replies calculated. This enables the analysis of those who withdrew their support for government aid over time alongside any change in their personal and financial well-being. Decline in personal and financial well-being is known to be one of the key factors for friction between nationals of a country and migrants and refugees. Despite the results applying only to the panellists, knowing what drove some Europeans to withdraw their support to Ukraine is nevertheless informative.

The analysis found that those whose mental well-being had declined were more likely to withdraw their support for their government’s housing of Ukrainians. Moreover, support also fell among those who were less concerned about the war and those who experienced deprivation. When compared with central and eastern European countries, a larger fall of support was seen in continental Europe and Ireland, the eastern Mediterranean and the Balkan states, while the Nordic and western Mediterranean countries maintained their support at the same level.

A similar picture is found when looking at the withdrawal of support for sending military aid. Support fell in 2024 among respondents who were less concerned about the war and had lower trust in their government. Someone who saw their economic well-being eroding – an increase in difficulty making ends meet or experiencing deprivation – was more likely to withdraw support. In addition, those whose got their news through social media or transitioned to social media for news between 2022 and 2024 were more likely to have withdrawn their support of government sending military aid. The finding suggests that the social media environment may provide an inaccurate depiction of the conflict, swaying its audience’s opinion against backing Ukraine.
 

A resilient Europe facing the conflict

A large proportion of Europeans still support Ukraine and their governments’ measures to aid the country and its people: 75.1% are in favour of housing displaced Ukrainians, 82.4% support humanitarian aid to Ukraine and 65.2% support military aid. Nevertheless, a considerable part of the EU population appears to be experiencing war fatigue. This is especially true of those who have struggled most with the rising cost of living since the outbreak of the war. Eurofound’s e-survey results show how social media play a role in the fall of support.

The EU put in place several measures to mitigate the negative effects of the war on its citizens. It created an agile system to absorb economic shocks including energy packages following the Russian invasion, which, despite the cost-of-living crisis, proved effective in capping the energy market price and limiting the negative consequences on citizens’ lives. 6 And it has committed to fostering healthy democracies and a strong rule of law by promoting the European Democracy Action Plan and the Democracy Shield with the aim of combating misinformation and strengthening media freedom, which may help to address this apparent growing division in public opinion around the war.
 

Image © Irina Flamingo/Adobe Stock

 

Footnotes

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